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The gaps, explained

We cross official figures (MMG, EITI) with market prices (IndexMundi). When they diverge, we document the gap, date it — and explain it: sourced hypotheses, named missing links, no invented figures.

● Official — MMG N°30Updated 31 Oct 2026
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Contents

Numbered sections — jump in or read in order

01The method — explaining without inventing02Gap sheet N°1 — SMD's gold sold at USD 706/oz03Gap sheet N°2 — CBG listed as 'N/A (convention)': does CBG pay nothing?04Gap sheet N°3 — The MMG reference price vs the market: is the gap narrowing?05Gap sheet N°4 — Untracked artisanal gold: what is the invisible worth?06Next sheets in preparation07Related

01 The method — explaining without inventing

  • Finding: every gap is dated and sourced (MMG, EITI, IndexMundi).
  • Explicit hypotheses: every proposed cause is labelled 'hypothesis', never presented as fact.
  • Verifications: when a source can settle the question, it is cited.
  • Missing links: what cannot be verified is shown as such.
  • Conclusion: what we know, what we don't, where to verify.
This page applies the site's charter: no invented figures. Analysing a gap is not inventing it — it is documenting and questioning it.

02 Gap sheet N°1 — SMD's gold sold at USD 706/oz

The finding: SMD's average 2025 selling price: USD 706/oz, vs a USD 2,905.80/oz all-sector average (MMG N°30, Table 36) — 24% of the average, and ~14.5% of the market price (~USD 4,855/oz, IndexMundi, March 2026). [own calculations on sourced figures]

The context: SMD (Société Minière de Dinguiraye) is the Guinean subsidiary of Nordgold, a Russian mining group (Le Monde, 13/10/2018; Guinéenews, 02/06/2022; Africa Intelligence, 17/04/2023). Guinea banned raw gold exports (Mali Actu, 24/06/2026) and tightened controls (Africaguinee, 10/07/2026).

Hypotheses (labelled, to verify)

  • H1 — Intra-group transfer pricing [documented hypothesis]: a subsidiary selling to a related entity at a discounted price shifts profits out of Guinea. Context: illicit financial flows from Africa estimated at USD 90bn/year (Le360, 21/12/2025). To verify: SMD agreements, EITI reconciliation.
  • H2 — Non-market declaration basis [hypothesis]: USD 706/oz ≈ 14-24% of the market, too low for refined gold — the declared basis (grade, quality, stage) could explain part of the gap. To verify: SMD declaration details.
  • H3 — Export under-declaration [hypothesis documented by regional context]: over one tonne of gold leaves Africa clandestinely every day (Le360, 31/05/2024); in Guinea, artisanal gold (68.8% of exports) is not tracked by the MMG. To verify for SMD: BCRG customs data.
  • H4 — Residual sales after disruption [alternative hypothesis]: SMD suspended production on 30/12/2023 (Kaloum fuel depot explosion) and faced tensions in Léro (RFI, 24/04/2024). To rule out or confirm with 2025 volumes.

What we know / what we don't

  • We know: the declared price (MMG N°30), the average, the market price, the ownership (Nordgold), the regional gold-leakage context.
  • We don't know: who SMD sells to (related entity or not), the exact basis of the declared price, the content of SMD's agreement (Amendment N°3, enacted by decree on 06/08/2018 — Guinéenews), the precise 2025 volume.
Where to verify: SMD base agreement + Amendment N°3 · EITI reconciliation reports · BCRG customs data · Nordgold group reports. Honest conclusion: 3 hypotheses remain open.

03 Gap sheet N°2 — CBG listed as 'N/A (convention)': does CBG pay nothing?

The finding: CBG accounts for 10% of 2025 bauxite production (~17.5 Mt out of 175.45 Mt — MMG N°30, company shares) [own calculation], sells at the sector's best price (USD 39.59/t, MMG N°30, Table 35) — and is listed 'N/A (convention)' in the 2025 mining tax, zero on the line (MMG N°30, Table 29), while SMB (37% of production) pays GNF 2,411.2bn.

The context: CBG (Compagnie des Bauxites de Guinée) has operated the Sangarédi deposit (Boké) since 1963 (Wikipedia FR/EN) — over six decades. It is a joint venture between the Guinean state and a foreign consortium (HALCO). CEO: Karifa Condé, also chairman of the Chamber of Mines (Guinéenews, 30/06/2025). The context is hot: mining agreement renegotiation — GAC terminated (Guinee7, 09/07/2025), amicable Guinea-EGA agreements (Agence Ecofin, 06/05/2026).

What we know about its payments

  • 'CBG paid more than USD 470 million in net taxes over 5 years' (Guinee7, 01/03/2021 — period before 2025).
  • In February 2026, CBG hosted the EITI for the presentation of the 2022 and 2023 reconciliation reports (Guinéenews, 02/02/2026) — its payments are documented there.

Hypotheses (labelled, to verify)

  • H1 — Derogatory agreement regime [documented hypothesis]: CBG's establishment agreement (1963 + amendments) provides for its own fiscal regime, different from the standard mining tax of the revised mining code. Sources: 'N/A (convention)' status (MMG), 'six decades of business relations and economic benefits' (Guinéenews, 03/11/2023).
  • H2 — Uneven treatment between operators [hypothesis]: newer entrants (SMB, CHALCO) pay the standard mining tax; CBG, entering in 1963, keeps its own regime. The agreement renegotiations (GAC terminated 2025, EGA agreements 2026) suggest the state seeks harmonisation.
⚠️ Important correction: 'CBG pays nothing' would be WRONG. The USD 470m net taxes over 5 years (Guinee7, 2021) prove otherwise. The absence from the 'mining tax' line means a different regime, not an absence of payment.

What we know / what we don't

  • We know: the production share (10%), the price (USD 39.59/t), the absence from the 2025 mining tax line, the seniority (1963), documented payments (USD 470m/5y).
  • We don't know: the exact terms of the agreement (not public) — missing link; what CBG paid in 2025 across all taxes; the exact comparison between the agreement regime and the standard regime.
Where to verify: EITI 2022-2023 reconciliation reports (presented at CBG in February 2026) · CBG agreement + amendments (publication to request via EITI or the Chamber of Mines) · Ministry of Mines statements on the reference price (Guinee7, 18/08/2022). Honest conclusion: derogatory regime likely, not quantifiable with current public data.

04 Gap sheet N°3 — The MMG reference price vs the market: is the gap narrowing?

The finding: in 2025, official Guinean bauxite selling prices range from USD 21.77/t (Ashapura Boffa) to USD 39.59/t (CBG), average USD 30.72/t (MMG N°30, Table 35). The full schedule by company is documented on its dedicated page → Since 2024-2025 the MMG applies an official reference price that brings operators' declarations closer to international market prices.

The 2026 context changes the game: a tonne of bauxite already costs less than a tonne of cocoa (Africaguinee, 31/12/2023) — and world prices are collapsing under oversupply (Fastmarkets, 11/03/2026). Guinea is responding in three steps: export restrictions to stabilise prices (Reuters, 18/03/2026; Briefs Finance, 26/05/2026), a price-support plan (Agence Ecofin, 19/03/2026), and preparation of the GBX, a Guinean bauxite index (Guinéenews, 10/04/2026).

The question: is the gap narrowing?

  • What we can measure: the 2025 official price range (USD 21.77-39.59/t) and the reference-price mechanism, championed by tax expert Yakouba Kourouma (Guinee7, 18/08/2022; 13/02/2026).
  • What we cannot measure yet: the precise official-vs-market gap — reference bauxite indices (Fastmarkets, SMM) are paywalled [missing link], and official 2024 prices (Bulletin N°29) have not yet been extracted to measure 2024 → 2025 convergence.

Hypotheses (labelled, to verify)

  • H1 — The reference price narrows the declaration gap [documented hypothesis]: the mechanism explicitly aims to bring operators closer to international prices (site Prices page; Guinee7, 2022/2026). Exact 2024 → 2025 convergence still needs Bulletin N°29.
  • H2 — The 2026 market slump reverses the dynamics [hypothesis]: oversupply is dragging prices down (Fastmarkets, 11/03/2026); without action, the gap would narrow from below — which is why Guinea restricts exports (Reuters, 18/03/2026) to support prices.
  • H3 — GBX institutionalises the Guinean price [signal]: the index in preparation (Guinéenews, 10/04/2026) goes beyond the reference price: Guinea wants to weigh on world prices (RFI, 20/03/2026).
Honest conclusion: the official-market gap is not yet quantifiable with public data (paywalled indices, Bulletin N°29 not yet extracted). But the 2026 dynamics are clear: the market is falling, and Guinea (reference price + restrictions + GBX) is trying to support prices — the gap is now shaped by state action, no longer only by operators' declarations.

05 Gap sheet N°4 — Untracked artisanal gold: what is the invisible worth?

The finding: 49,609 kg of artisanal gold exported in 2025, i.e. 68.8% of gold exports (72,120 kg total — MMG N°30). Yet artisanal production itself is not tracked by the MMG ('-' cell in the bulletin).

What the invisible is worth [own calculations on sourced figures]

  • 49.6 t × 32,150.7 oz/t ≈ 1.6 million ounces exported in 2025.
  • At the 2025 official average price (USD 2,905.80/oz, MMG N°30): ~USD 4.6bn.
  • At the market price (~USD 4,855/oz, IndexMundi, March 2026): ~USD 7.7bn.
  • Valuation gap: ~USD 3.1bn — the economic stake of non-traceability.
  • For comparison: USD 4.6-7.7bn ≈ 9 to 15 times the 2025 mining taxes (~USD 508m).

The 2026 context changes the game: President Doumbouya banned raw gold exports by decree (RFI, 23/06/2026; tv5monde, 21/06/2026; Guinee114, 04/07/2026) and announced a refinery (Agenzia Nova, 22/06/2026). 'Artisanal gold, Guinea's other challenge for local refining ambitions' (Agence Ecofin, 30/06/2026).

Hypotheses (labelled, to verify)

  • H1 — The real value of flows exceeds declarations [hypothesis documented by context]: Africa loses ~USD 30bn/year in undeclared gold exports (Business Insider Africa, 13/07/2026); SWISSAID has mapped these flows (swissinfo, 30/05/2024); in Guinea, artisanal production is untracked by construction (MMG N°30).
  • H2 — The gold tax base is incomplete [mechanism]: untracked gold = no verifiable unit price = no reliable tax base. The valuation gap (USD 4.6 vs 7.7bn) represents the potential taxation margin.
  • H3 — The raw gold export ban (2026) aims to capture this value [signal]: decree of June-July 2026 + announced refinery (RFI, Agenzia Nova) — the gap will now be played out on the sector's new traceability.

What we know / what we don't

  • We know: exported volumes (49.6 t), the share (68.8%), average and market prices, the 2026 regulatory context.
  • We don't know: actual untracked production, the exact value of undeclared flows, what the state really collects on artisanal gold — the BCRG governor was even heard in a gold-related scandal (Financial Afrik, 21/01/2025).
Where to verify: SWISSAID's map of African gold flows (2024) · EITI reports (traceability) · the July 2026 decree (Guinee114) · tracking of the announced refinery · BCRG data. Honest conclusion: the invisible is worth ~USD 4.6-7.7bn depending on the price basis [own calculations] — the sector's biggest fiscal stake, and the least tracked.

06 Next sheets in preparation

  • Sheet N°5: the 2025 selling-price range (USD 21.77 vs 39.59/t) — why such a gap between companies?

Gold

Unit prices by gold company, SMD included.

SEE →

Prices & markets

Iron, aluminium, gold: the prices that value the subsoil.

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Taxes

What the mines return to the Guinean state.

SEE →