The billion Guinea must not lose
Guinea announced its first sovereign wealth fund: USD 1bn of initial capital, funded by the mining revenues of Simandou and existing mines. What we know, what the FARI model projects, what the African precedents (Botswana, Angola) teach — dated and sourced data.
01 Key figures
02 What we know — the announcement
On 12 November 2025, Guinea announced its first sovereign wealth fund, with an initial capital of USD 1 billion (Reuters, 12/11/2025). The fund would be funded by mining revenues — from Simandou and from existing bauxite and gold mines.
The project is part of Pillar 4 of the 2026-2040 Framework Law reviewed by the CNT (March 2026): Guinea plans to turn part of its mining income into savings for future generations.
03 The FARI model — what Simandou can bring
In June 2025, EITI Guinea published a fiscal analysis of the Simandou project over 26 years (FARI model). The base-scenario projections (USD 80/tonne price):
- USD 850m per year of state revenues before 2035, during the ramp-up phase.
- USD 2bn per year after 2035, once the full corporate income tax applies (SimFer).
- USD 39bn cumulative over 25 years (base scenario).
04 What USD 70m/year represents
At a prudent 7% annual return, a USD 1 billion capital generates USD 70m of interest every year [own calculation: 7% × USD 1bn].
Scale: this is roughly 14% of the mining taxes collected in 2025 (≈ USD 508m, MMG N°30) [own calculation]. Even without additional capital, the fund would earn each year an amount comparable to a significant share of the sector's fiscal revenues.
05 Precedents — Botswana vs Angola
The same starting point — a sovereign wealth fund funded by an extractive resource — produced two opposite outcomes in Africa:
| Botswana — Pula Fund | Angola — FSDEA | |
|---|---|---|
| Outcome | ≈ USD 3.5bn in assets after 30 years | −60% of assets in less than 10 years |
| Source | IMF — Botswana Country Report 2024/287 | NRGI — Resource Governance Index 2021 |
06 Documented conditions for success
- Public deposit and withdrawal rules: when the fund receives money, when it may pay out, and under what majority (NRGI — Resource Governance Index).
- Independent governance and asset transparency: publication of amounts, managers, returns (NRGI).
- Explicit objective: intergenerational savings (Botswana) or budget stabilisation — the objective shapes the rules (Policy Center for the New South, Rabat — Feb. 2024).
07 What we know / what we don't know
- We know: the announcement (Reuters, 12/11/2025) · the announced capital (USD 1bn) · the FARI model projections (EITI, June 2025) · the documented precedents (IMF 2024, NRGI 2021).
- We don't know: the content of the law (not public as of 09/2026) · the governance and withdrawal rules · the timeline of the first effective deposit · the exact source of the USD 1bn (current revenues or debt issuance).
08 Related
Where the money comes from
Simandou revenues projected by the FARI model: production, players, timeline.
SEE SIMANDOU →What the state collects today
GNF 4,426.7bn in 2025 mining taxes — the fiscal base that will fund the sovereign fund.
SEE TAXES →The price that drives everything
Iron ore 62% at USD 104.45/t (March 2026): the FARI scenario assumes USD 80/t.
SEE PRICES →The method
Documenting gaps without inventing: labelled hypotheses, named missing links.
SEE GAPS →